Crushing The Numbers - Feb. 21, 2024

Want to know exactly how the Maine Celtics are getting it done on the court? Crushing the Numbers takes a deep dive into the G League stats to see what the numbers say about the statistical areas and categories in which the Celtics have excelled. 

The All-Star break has come and gone, and now the Maine Celtics are back in the saddle for the stretch run of the regular season. Beginning with a back-to-back set in Birmingham, the Celtics round out the 2023-24 calendar with 10 of its 14 remaining games on the road.  

The team has fostered strong chemistry with extended stays in Portland over the last month-plus, and the foundation for a playoff-caliber team has been put into place. Now with a hefty regular season sample-size on our hands, let’s take stock of where the Celtics fit amongst the league from a statistical perspective. 

Individual performances 

JD Davison remains the head of the snake for this Maine team. The second-year point guard is averaging 20.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 8.6 assists, and along with Brandon Goodwin, is one of two players in the entire league to hit those marks. 

It’s not all offense for the Alabama native, either – Davison adds 1.6 steals per game and is 12^th in the league with 29 total steals. Playing the most minutes on the team and holding responsibility for controlling the pace of the game, Davison has come into his own as an impact defender, displaying active hands, adept screen navigation, and the toughness and desire to leave his mark at the point of attack. On top of the tenacious defense, Davison has taken strides in various capacities offensively, particularly with his finishing touch and decision-making consistency in the halfcourt. 

Davison is shooting 62.1% at the rim in 18 games – the only player shorter than 6-foot-4 inside the top-12 in rim efficiency (min. 120 FGA) – and 43.8% in the 10-to-14-foot range, an impressive clip given the amount of self-created attempts he generates from that area of the floor. Already an explosive finisher at the rim when he broke into the NBA, he’s blossomed this year as an effective second-level scorer with supreme finishing touch. Davison’s blend of speed, power, verticality, and skill are difficult for opponents to match up with in the G League. 

Kylor Kelley has come into his own with the Celtics over the past few months, especially so in recent weeks. Over his last five games, Kelley averaged 14.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 3.2 blocks while shooting 73.2% from the field, providing a significant boost to his season-wide numbers. He vaulted into the #1 spot with 3.1 blocks per game not long ago, and with five games of 5 or more blocks already, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll fall off soon. Kelley anchors a top-10 defense and finishes 68.9% of his field goal attempts – that level of two-way production is rivaled by very few. 

A key component of Maine’s offensive attack is its high 3-point attempt rate, something Celtics fans have become acutely familiar with while watching the big club down in Boston. Those leading the parade from beyond the arc; Drew Peterson, Brandon Slater, DJ Steward, and Jordan Walsh. 

All four players provide critical floor spacing around Davison and Kelley, two potent forces going towards the rim. Steward and Peterson take pressure off Davison as a ball-handler and playmaker while parlaying that on-ball utility into strong gravity as 3-point shooters, particularly off the dribble in Steward’s case. Slater and Walsh, a pair of physical, 3-and-D wings, are unafraid to fire over contests and are comfortable spotting up from any area. The Celtics have a host of versatile shooters surrounding their playmakers, and all of them convert at 38.5% or higher from long-range, with Peterson and Steward in a three-way tie for 16^th in total 3-pointers made with 51. The Boston Three Party has moved up north for the winter. 

Team performance 

 Let’s start with the basics; Maine has the league’s #13 offense, #8 defense, and #6 net rating through 20 games. Only Maine, Austin, Delaware, Sioux Falls, and Stockton rank in the top-13 in both categories. 

Upon digging a little deeper, it becomes quite clear as to how the Celtics land on the stat profile we’ve got on our hands. Sitting with the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the league, the Celtics’ 17.2 second-chance points per game rank fourth in the league, balancing an offense that sits in the top half of the league and relies on its shooting. Defensively, Kelley’s league-leading mark in blocks, complemented by James Banks III and the tenacious, versatile defense of Davison, Walsh and the like, the Celtics have a claim to “best defense in the league” this season – all year, Maine has fallen back on its defense. Expect it to be a true calling card down the stretch as the Celtics hunt for a spot in the G League playoffs. 

With just over a month remaining in the season, Maine has control of its destiny. Though the Celtics are in seventh place, one spot outside the playoffs, the Celtics are only two games behind the first-place Blue Coats and a half-game out of sixth. A lot can happen over the course of 12 games, but the Celtics have a chance to host a playoff game for the second-straight year and could even claim a first-round bye with a strong finish. Time to get the ball rolling.