Crushing The Numbers - March 7, 2024

Want to know exactly how the Maine Celtics are getting it done on the court? Crushing the Numbers takes a deep dive into the G League stats to see what the numbers say about the statistical areas and categories in which the Celtics have excelled.  

With an active win streak of four games, the Maine Celtics are officially the hottest team in the G League. 

Starting with a 30-point rout of the Westchester Knicks in the friendly confines of the Portland Expo, the Celtics have since won three-straight road games to earn themselves the longest active win streak in the league. With the postseason fast approaching and the majority of the East still in contention for a playoff seed, Maine’s hot stretch couldn’t have come at a better time. It certainly helps that the Celtics have been beating teams in a similar position; those fighting for playoff seeding and tiebreaker advantages, trying to pile up as many wins as possible over the next few weeks. 

On the season, the Celtics have been near or at the top of the league in various statistical categories – during this four-game streak, they’ve taken things up a notch. Let’s dive into what the numbers have to say about Maine’s recent success. 

Team performance: 

We’ve talked about Maine’s dominance on the offensive glass while Crushing the Numbers before. As of late, Maine has been dominating the glass on both ends of the floor – the team’s 54.2 rebounding percentage tops the G League over the last four games. Led by Neemias Queta, Kylor Kelley and James Banks III, the Celtics are rebounding over half of the missed shots in each game, including their own. Pace of play is a stat that can be directly influenced by rebounding – the more misses a team grabs, the quicker, easier, and more often that team can get out in transition against an unset defense (or keep themselves in possession with an offensive board). That’s been the case for Maine recently, which has jumped from 26^th in pace on the season to 16^th during this win-streak. There aren’t many ways for a team to give itself a better chance to win than controlling the pace and tempo, and that starts on the glass. 

Three-point shooting volume and efficiency is valued by the entire organization from Boston up to Maine, as evidenced by the play style of each team. Over the last four games, Maine has matched volume with efficiency to an impressive degree. Ranking seventh with a 61.6 true shooting percentage, the Celtics have made a marginal improvement on their season-wide mark of 57.9 percent, thanks in large part to an uptick in free-throw rate and a huge jump in efficiency at the rim. Finishing at a 66.7% clip from inside five feet in the last four games (compared to 62.1% on the year) has had a massive impact on the Celtics  offense. 

Don’t think the Celtics have forgotten what brought them to this point, either. The #4 defense in the G League has held steady as the #4 defense during this four-game stretch, even decreasing the team defensive rating by a couple points. Allowing a mere 102 points per 100 possessions during the streak, the Celtics excel defending ball screens and handoffs specifically. Per Synergy, Maine allows just 0.72 points per possession against the pick-and-roll and 0.75 points per possession against handoffs, exemplifying the chemistry and high level of effort that the point-of-attack defenders and versatile big men have fostered this year. Not many teams have matched the season-long consistency Maine has displayed on the defensive end, and it’s only gotten better as the year goes on. 

Individual performances: 

While the Celtics are the hottest team in the G League, DJ Steward has been one of the league’s hottest players. The third-year guard has dropped 20 or more points in four-straight games, the third time in his career he’s accomplished that feat and the second time this season – the first stretch came in late-January, during which Maine went 3-1. Steward is a scintillating shooter off the bounce and off the catch, and when he heats up, he's more than capable of carrying an offense. He’s not only a threat to score from deep, where he’s hitting 41.2% of his shots over the last four games, but also at the rim. A mark of 68.8% at the rim is truly impressive when coupled with his efficiency from deep and willingness to shift into the role of a playmaker whenever he’s needed. 

The men in the middle have held it down all season long, and in recent games it’s been no different. Kelley remains the league-leader with 3 blocked shots per game, a spot he’s held for much of the past couple weeks, on top of finishing at a 68.2% clip. Meanwhile, Banks leads the league with a remarkable 80% mark from the field over the last four games, nearly 6% higher than second place, and grabs the ninth-most offensive rebounds per game at 2.9 to help boost Maine’s rebounding rate. 

JD Davison has etched himself into the Maine franchise record books in less than two years’ time. He became the all-time leader in assists during the Showcase Cup, and when he posted 25 points and 12 assists in the win over Osceola, he became only the second player in Maine history to record 20 double-doubles in a single season. If Davison records two more double-doubles, he’ll be the sole record-holder with 22. On top of that, he’s been climbing up the all-time leaderboards for points, steals, games played, and minutes played. The second-year point guard’s ability to pick defenses apart, both as a passer and scorer, has ignited Maine’s offense in recent games. Natural pace and innate court vision helps the team create easier scoring opportunities, and Davison’s willingness to distribute puts teammates in a position to succeed even when off the ball. The fifth-leading assist-getter in the G League is having another remarkable season in Portland. 

Playoff outlook 

Sitting at 15-11 with eight regular season games remaining, the Celtics are in fifth place in the East. With six teams from each conference qualifying for the playoffs, Maine needs to finish in the top-two to secure a first-round bye, and a top-three seeds ensures at least one playoff game at the Expo. There’s still much to be decided, but the Celtics are on the verge of putting themselves in the driver’s seat for the stretch run. 

Ahead of next week’s two-game set with first-place Delaware, the Celtics are just two-and-a-half games behind them. Even a split would be impactful for Maine, but a series sweep would give them some leeway as the regular season winds down.  

Now one-and-a-half games above the playoff cutline, teams are starting to separate a bit after the East standings were bottlenecked for most of the season. The Celtics are due to off against a slew of East opponents until the season finale in Texas, including a pair of games against sixth-place College Park later in the month. It’s time to buckle down and make a push for the playoffs.